![]() & Kahneman, D.) 334–438 (Cambridge University Press, New York, 2002). ![]() When predictions fail: the dilemma of unrealistic optimism in Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (eds. Predictive properties of analysts' forecasts of corporate earnings. When every relationship is above average: perceptions and expectations of divorce at the time of marriage. Unrealistic optimism about future life events. These findings indicate that optimism is tied to a selective update failure and diminished neural coding of undesirable information regarding the future. However, highly optimistic individuals exhibited reduced tracking of estimation errors that called for negative update in right inferior prefrontal gyrus. Distinct regions of the prefrontal cortex tracked estimation errors when those called for positive update, both in individuals who scored high and low on trait optimism. This selectivity was mediated by a relative failure to code for errors that should reduce optimism. Participants updated their beliefs more in response to information that was better than expected than to information that was worse. We examined this question and found a marked asymmetry in belief updating. How people maintain unrealistic optimism, despite frequently encountering information that challenges those biased beliefs, is unknown. Unrealistic optimism is a pervasive human trait that influences domains ranging from personal relationships to politics and finance.
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